Central banking, Economics, History, Inflation, Policy, Politics

About that imminent banking crisis… don’t hold your breath. We get inflation instead.

A subtle understanding of economic change comes from a knowledge of history and large affairs, not from statistics or their processing alone…

Arthur Burns[1]

Those of us who spend time analysing financial markets have been anticipating an impending banking crisis for years now. A number of Global Systemically Important Banks (GSIBs) as well as many lesser banks have been struggling under an increasing burden of bad debts and deteriorating credit quality in their balance sheets. Deutsche Bank, probably the worst offender, has been on death watch since 2016. But as years went by and doubts about the bank’s solvency multiplied and compounded, no banking crisis materialized.

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Asset management, Central banking, Commodity price, Economics, Inflation, Monetary reform, Policy, Risk management, Trend following

Inflation: we passed a phase transition

In April 2012, economist Robert Wenzel[1] was invited to speak at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. On the occasion, he told the central bankers thatvast amounts of money printing are now required to keep your manipulated economy afloat. It will ultimately result in huge price inflation, or, if you stop printing, another massive economic crash will occur. There is no other way out.”[2]

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Children, Health, Policy

Evidence: face masks put children’s health at risk

Starting the new school year I found out tnat our children are required to wear masks in school – all day! They are allowed to remove them for a few seconds at a time and during mealtime. This at last prompted me to look at the scientific data in several peer reviewed medical journals and determine whether there’s good science justifying such cruelty. The verdict is very clear (see below for links to sources):

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Central banking, History, Media, Monetary reform, Policy, Politics, Social development, Truth, War and peace

Covid 19: the banking cartel is driving the agenda

For weeks now, the media and “health” authorities have relentlessly promoted a fear-inducing narrative about the Covid 19 “pandemic” as if the daily count of new “cases” were a major public health emergency, sensationalized by the media nearly 24/7. The official narrative is sharply at odds with the gathering voices from hundreds of doctors, virologists and epidemiologists.

Incoherence of the official narrative

Supposing that we are up against a “once-in-a-century” pandemic, this would be a great challenge for humanity, wrought with uncertainty. One would expect to encounter a lively debate, discussions, much doubt and controversy. Journalists should seek out as many domain experts as possible so we can all gain the clearest possible understanding of the new health challenge and how to confront it. Effective treatments should be promoted, celebrated, screamed from the rooftops. But the reality is very different. Continue reading

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Children, Health, Media, Policy, Politics, Social development

Of pandemics and tyrannies

A few years ago Dr. Jordan Peterson gave a lecture in which he made a chilling but noteworthy remark about the correlation between epidemics and tyrannies. I thought I’d transcribe the key parts (the video clip of this lecture is at the bottom of this article):

Jordan Peterson: “There was a paper published in PLOS 1 … about a year ago… They were looking at… political attitudes with … authoritarian beliefs scale, because authoritarianism has been studied quite a bit since World War II. … What they found was mind-boggling – Nobel Prize winning stuff as far as I’m concerned: Continue reading

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Asset management, Central banking, Inflation, Market trends, Stock market, Trend following

Bear market or bubble reflation: what comes next?

In March last year, I published an article looking at historical perspective on boom/bust cycles in SeekingAlpha. I suggested then that, “the (still) festering economic imbalances might get resolved along two alternative scenarios. Either we’ll have a full-blown deflationary depression that could see asset prices drop by 50% or more, or we’ll have a strong and sustained decline in the US Dollar, ” accompanied with a continued rise in equity markets. Today, the latter scenario appears more likely. Here’s why: Continue reading

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Health, Policy, Truth

Reject fear: your immune system is robust and resilient – your best bet for good health and vitality

Three weeks ago I published, “Don’t succumb to virus fear,” – one of my best read articles so far. As a layman, I hesitated to publish more than just 6 paragraphs based on official data and very simple, non-controversial advice on how to bolster your immune system.

In the intervening days, many experts have come out offering essentially the same advice. Today I came across the superb interview with Dr. Shiva Ayyadurai, MIT immunologist with four PhDs whose message is authoritative and completely in agreement with my timid prose from a few weeks ago. Continue reading

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Asset management, Commodity price, Commodity risk, Stock market, Trading, Trend following

With I-System through March storm – part 2

March 2020 market storm has been an important test of the I-System model and the way it navigated the unforeseen events. The results have been very encouraging and the system has done well in all affected markets. Last week I summarized its performance on Brent crude oil, Silver and US 30-year Bond. Here we take a look at how it performed in Russell 2000, S&P500 and Palladium markets. Continue reading

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Asset management, Commodity price, Commodity risk, Hedging, Market trends, Oil market, Risk management, Trading, Trend following

With I-System through the storm… with flying colors!

Recent weeks brought severe price shocks in many markets. Their timing and severity took most participants by surprise. In these circumstances, I-System strategies performed superbly well. As this post shows, a few strategies sustained negative results, but this is to be expected. This is why, rather than formulating a trading strategy, we built a stable knowledge framework so that we can formulate and implement literally thousands of strategies within that framework. In this sense I-System holds potential to entirely transcend uncertainty by supplanting it with a more predictable risk class: a swarm of consistent, intelligent and emotionless trading agents, each in charge of a small fraction of portfolio risk. The current experience was an important test for the I-System. The results speak for themselves. Continue reading

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