Category Archives: Policy

Policy, Politics, War and peace

Courting Armageddon vs. cultivating peace

A spat at the UN Security Council shows the contrast between two very different approaches to war and to peace

[Originally published on Alex Krainer’s Substack] On 26 October 2023 at the United Nations Security Council an interesting exchange between the representatives of Israel and China followed China’s vetoing of the latest US-sponsored UNSC Israel/Palestine resolution. Israel’s permanent representative to the UN, Gilad Erdan delivered an abrasive, undiplomatic reprimand: 

“To those who voted against this resolution I must say that your decision shocks me to my core. In Israel, we are fighting for our very survival. My elderly parents living in Ashkelon have spent the last 20 days running back and forth to their bomb shelters as rockets rained down on them, deliberately on them, on civilians. And you cannot condemn even these deliberate attacks on civilians perpetrated by terror organizations? If any of your countries endured a similar massacre, I am certain – certain, that you would act with much greater force than Israel. Much greater force!

Read more: Courting Armageddon vs. cultivating peace

There would be no question in your minds that such a barbaric slaughter requires a broad military operation against the terrorists who committed such inhumane atrocities to eradicate their terrorist capabilities in order to make sure that such atrocities can even happen again. How would Moscow react if terrorist death squads wiped out entire neighborhoods in Moscow? How would Beijing respond if a genocidal jihadis beheaded and murdered your babies? I will give you a moment to reflect on that thought. But I believe every person, not only here in this room, across the globe, whoever is watching this discussion, knows exactly how you would respond.”

China’s permanent representative Zhang Jun‘s response was very measured and diplomatic, but I will skip it here. You can see the whole exchange in the 4-min. YouTube clip below:

What I found more interesting was that if Mr. Erdan’s remarks were intended to justify Israel’s actions by suggesting that others would react with “much greater force,” they certainly missed their mark. 

How Russia responded to Ukraine’s “anti-terror operation” in 2014

We can contrast Israel’s rash and impulsive response to Hamas attacks to the way Russia responded to Ukraine’s 2014 “anti-terrorist operation” (ATO) against the Russian-speaking population in the south and in Donbass. Starting in late April that year, Ukraine’s regular troops, seeded with extremist elements from the Right Sector and other far-right paramilitary organizations descended with tanks, armored personnel carriers, heavy artillery, helicopters and aircraft on the Donbass and the cities of Slavyansk, Mariupol, Krasnoarmeisk, Kramatorsk, Donetsk, Lugansk and many smaller towns and villages. 

By saying that Ukraine’s troops were “seeded with extremists,” I mean that when the initial attempts at repression turned out ineffective because Ukraine’s regular troops weren’t keen on unleashing violence on their fellow citizens, the Kiev junta hastily dispatched two or three members of different neo-Nazi gangs to all the mobilized units to enforce the junta’s orders, steel the troops’ resolve, and stir the pot properly to provoke a reaction from Russia.

Kiev’s first “success” was a massacre of Russian speaking protesters in Odessa on 2 May 2014. In addition to the 46 people who were burnt alive in the Trade Unions building that day, another 90 men, women and children were killed. The mass casualty event was planned and orchestrated deliberately. The unofficial casualty count was as high as 200 people. But that was only the beginning: over the ensuing weeks, Kiev’s troops killed more than 2000 Russian speaking Ukrainians (as officially tallied up in mid-July 2014 by Kiev’s government). 

Giving peace every chance

Contrary to what Mr. Erdan suggested, Russia’s leadership did not react with “far greater force.” No Kremlin representative called Ukrainians “human animals” nor flattened any part of Kiev in anger. Instead, Vladimir Putin’s government called for peace. They maintained open lines of communications with Kiev and called for discussions with representatives of western powers. At Russia’s initiative, peace negotiations ensued with Geneva Accords, followed by Minsk I and Minsk II agreements. Russia’s government continued to work the diplomatic tack for 8 long years even as Kiev troops continued with daily shelling of towns and cities in the Donbass, killing a total of 14,000 people.

Before resorting to military means, the Kremlin proposed draft security agreements to the United States and NATO in December 2021. Even after the start of their “Special Military Operation” (SMO) in February 2022, the Russians continued to negotiate with Zelensky’s government in Kiev. Those negotiations very nearly yielded an agreement only a month into the military operation, but for the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson‘s intervention to make sure that peace didn’t break out in Ukraine. 

Selective brutality, no reactions in anger

And while western media have been uniformly hostile to Russia, condemning its operations in Ukraine as barbaric and brutal, Russian brutality has been selective and strictly limited. Russia also did not react in anger against Israel when it caused the downing of its military aircraft over Syria killing 15 Russian officers. It also did not retaliate when Turkish air force downed its aircraft, nor when Azerbaijani forces did the same only hours before the 2020 signing of a peace deal between Azerbaijan and Armenia brokered by Russian diplomats. The peace deal was still signed in spite of someone’s attempt to derail it.

Russia also kept its cool when a passenger jet carrying 224 Russian tourists was shot down over Sinai desert in 2015 and when 9 of its diplomats were assassinated (or died suddenly and unexpectedly) around the world in quick succession, including its Ambassador in Ankara and its UN Ambassador Vitaly Churkin. For the record, these unexpected deaths occurred before the pandemic.

Statesmen with nuclear weapons shouldn’t indulge in juvenile tantrums

In all, Mr. Erdan’s remarks at the UNSC yesterday reflect an emotionally charged moment and perhaps justifiable outrage. But at high levels in diplomacy and government, officials have a responsibility to guard against rash, reckless reactions that jeopardize peace and risk escalating hostilities. It is understandable that many people at such times thirst for vengeance and disregard risks and consequences. But statesmen should not succumb to the emotion of the moment.

This should have double weight on Israeli leadership today, since their actions risk precipitating a regional war that could easily escalate to an uncontrollable global conflict with unpredictable consequences. Indulging an emotional, impulsive pursuit of revenge by a government whose arsenal includes as many as 400 nuclear bombs is reckless and irresponsible in the extreme. It is high time for Israeli leadership to sober up and finally seek a constructive path to peace and stability in its region.

Alex Krainer – @NakedHedgie is the creator of I-System Trend Following and publisher of daily TrendCompass investor reports which cover over 200 financial and commodities markets. One-month test drive is always free of charge, no jumping through hoops to cancel. To start your trial subscription, drop us an email at TrendCompass@ISystem-TF.com

For US investors, we propose a trend-driven inflation/recession resilient portfolio covering a basket of 30+ financial and commodities markets. For more information, you can drop me a comment or an email to xela.reniark@gmail.com

Standard
Great Reset, Liberty, Policy, Real life, Social development, Tyranny

The power of peaceful noncompliance

Originally published on my Substack, Alex Krainer’s Trend Compass, 14 September 2022

In 2020, I watched the New Normal die right in front of me. Here’s the story…

Peaceful noncompliance may not seem like much. It doesn’t make revolutions, nor is it suitable for Hollywood-style epics about the struggle for freedom. But it is actually extraordinarily powerful as I’ll try to convey with this personal experience.

On 22 May 2020, after three months of lockdowns, some of the beaches in the South of France finally opened. After weeks of being restricted at home with two small boys, I took advantage and went down to the seashore. However, this was going to be a New Normal experience with lots of new rules and restrictions. I was so horrified with what I found there, I refused to participate in what seemed like a humiliating treatment, so I just set down a few towels on the grass, overlooking the New Normal beach scene.

Over the following four days I simply sat there and observed while my kids were running around and playing. Later, I wrote an article titled, “A day at the beach in the brave new world” on my blog, The Naked Hedgie. What I did not appreciate at that time was that I was in fact watching that New Normal arrangement disintegrate and die right in front of me, under the weight of people’s simple noncompliance.

Continue reading →
Standard
Liberty, Policy, Psychology, Tyranny, War and peace

The balloon hysteria is about war preparations

A MAJOR war escalation may be imminent.

For the past ten days, the American media has been almost saturated with nonstop news coverage about the mysterious balloons and unidentified flying objects crossing into U.S. airspace. The intensity of coverage escalated during the last five days with leading politicians, commentators, military analysts and media figures pitching in to stoke the alarm.

A distraction or something more than that?

It all reeks of a psyop intended either as a distraction, another case of mass-formation psychosis in the making, or both. If it’s a distraction, the powers-that-be would clearly like to divert our attention away from a whole range of embarrassing developments:

  • The empire’s imminent defeat in Ukraine,
  • Revelation that the Biden Administration orchestrated the Nord Stream pipelines terror attack,
  • The environmental disasters unfolding in Ohio and Texas (in both cases cargo train derailments),
  • Yet another pandemic emergency that’s in the works or,
  • Something entirely different that we are yet to find out about.

More likely however, the hysteria is being created to psychologically prepare the nation for war, this time a full on military engagement against China.

Continue reading →
Standard
Energy crisis, Great Reset, Policy, Politics, Social development, Tyranny

By hook and by crook: pushing the Great Reset

Last July, following a 3-hour call with with the German firebrand MEP Christine Anderson, I published the article, “A small short: the coming collapse of the air travel industry,” about the strange epidemic of travel chaos at airports around the western world. The contention from three industry insiders on that call was that the chaos was being deliberately orchestrated to destroy the air travel industry. They presented detailed and compelling evidence for their contention.

Of course, any such conspiracy theorizing tends to elicit raised eyebrows among the normies. Evidence or no evidence, they reject whatever can’t be linked to “credible sources” in legacy media (by contrast, they’ll accept the official narratives even on statements attributed to unnamed officials). The dismissal of any suggestion that there might be a planned agenda to destroy an entire industry usually leads with the question, “who would do such a thing?“

Continue reading →
Standard
Economics, Monetary reform, Policy, Politics, Real life, Social development

Policy: economic growth or quality of life?

Published on my Substack, 7 Dec. 2022.

It goes without saying that the key policy objective of fiscal and monetary authorities the world over is to achieve and sustain economic growth. This imperative is ultimately the by-product of the fraudulent monetary system we’ve had in place for several centuries now. In that time, the system has shaped and distorted economic and social policy, economic theory, cultural norms and even the way we think of ourselves.

But living under this system has been a relatively recent socioeconomic experiment. It has proven highly flawed, unsustainable and even pathogenic. At present, it is in an irreversible decline, and it is incumbent upon our generation to rethink and reimagine how to build the future, as even the Davos set claims we must. But we cannot hope to solve society’s problems unless we diagnose the problems correctly.

Continue reading →
Standard
Energy crisis, Eurasia, Inflation, Policy, Politics

Will Germany sink the EU?

Beseiged from all sides, Germany can now look to one reliable partner: Russia.

Europe’s escalating economic, financial and geopolitical crises are putting increasing pressure on the whole EU project. They’re also unmasking the exalted “European unity” for the utter farce that it is. It’s become clear that like most other things in the empire of lies, that unity is exactly its opposite as allies turn against allies.

Destroying Germany’s economic lifeline

Someone blew up Nord Stream pipelines bringing in cheap, abundant natural gas from Russia to Germany. German economy depended on this resource for nearly 60% of its industrial production. As Zoltan Pozsar suggested, $2 trillion of German value depended on $20 billion of Russian gas.

We can’t be sure who blew up the pipelines,but the most likely suspects are all Germany’s supposed friends and allies: the US, UK, Poland, Sweden and Denmark. Of course, we are not talking about those nations’ legitimate government structures, but rather, the deep state elements within. One thing that is not in doubt however, is that Germany, not Russia, will sustain by far the greatest damage from the sabotage. That was fully well appreciated by all protagonists of this drama, implying that it was a deliberate and premeditated attack on Germany.

Continue reading →
Standard
Liberty, Policy, Politics, Tyranny, War and peace

War on China: the real target are the American people

As I write these lines, the US House of Representatives speaker Nancy Pelosi is apparently en route to Taiwan in what can only be described as a calculated, gratuitous provocation of China. The “normies” will surely protest that Pelosi has the right to visit other democratical nations, bla, bla, bla. For the record, Taiwan is part of China, not an independent nation – even according to the official US government position. But that nonsense is the same kind that was applied to Ukraine: she had the right to join any military alliance she wanted, it’s about freedom, democracy, our values, etc…

Western think tanks have been predicting a war with China war for many years now as though it were an inevitable outcome, a future set in stone. In September 2016, the Atlantic Council published a report predicting a world “marked by the breakdown of order, violent extremism and an era of perpetual war.” The designated enemies of course are Russia and China. Two years later, a bipartisan Congressional panel published a lengthy report “Providing for the Common Defense,” which argued that the USA needs to prepare for devastating wars against the two resurgent powers. Nowhere in this document is there any suggestion that such a war ought to be avoided, and apart for the brief four years of the Trump administration, the US leadership has consistently worked to build up tensions rather than diffuse them. Then, in February 2021 Admiral Charles Richard who heads US Strategic Command called on the nation’s military and civilian leaders to seek new ways to face threats by Russia and China, including the “real possibility” of nuclear conflict. Why? Because Moscow and Beijing have “begun to aggressively challenge international norms.”

One nation started 80% of all wars since 1946

Continue reading →
Standard
Central banking, Eurasia, History, Policy, Politics

The “Three Block” global agenda today and the role of finance (part 3 of 3)

This is part 3 of a 3-part series shedding light on the role of British secret diplomacy in the run-up to World War 2. This article looks at the role of finance in shaping the new global order, still based on the same three-block world agenda. Here are the links to Part 1, Part 2 and the 46 min. video report on YouTube, which covers all three parts.

The “three block” imperial agenda today

While Nazism was defeated in World War II at a massive cost in lives and treasure, the same structures of power that financed and empowered Hitler have retained their levers of power and are continuing to shape global geopolitics to this day. They have not given up on their vision of a “three block world”, which is perhaps most visibly represented by the Trilateral Commission, one of the most influential think tanks in the world. Founded in July 1973, the Trilateral Commission’s aim is to foster close cooperation between Japan, Western Europe and North America. But unlike in the 1930s, today the control of continental Europe is being pursued through the ostensibly democratic political institutions of the European Union rather than by conquest and brute military force.

Continue reading →
Standard
Eurasia, History, Liberty, Policy, Politics, Social development, Tyranny, War and peace

Is the age of permanent war finally over?

Recent events in the world have given me great hope that we might finally emerge from the century of permanent war. The Great Reset agenda seems to be losing steam and those in charge of implementing it are losing conviction (with the exception, perhaps, of the very top echelon in power). At the same time, the ranks of people who are opposed to it and are willing to take a stand, appear to be swelling.

Since the very start of the great pandemic of 2020, something about the public health response didn’t feel right. It was clear from the measures that were enacted and from measures that were not enacted that their purpose had little to do with public health. Instead, they seemed to further a different agenda. Soon we learned that this was all connected to World Economic Forum’s hugely ambitious Fourth Industrial Revolution or the Great Reset. But the agenda and the steps taken seemed rushed, panicked and frankly, hopeless.

Continue reading →
Standard
Central banking, Liberty, Policy, Politics, Real life, Tyranny, War and peace

Why we all MUST reject vaccine passports

The enemy is fear. We think it is hate; but it is really fear. – Mohandas Gandhi

To ‘normalize’ vaccine passports, the media have increasingly been discussing the idea as we trudge on through the umpteenth version of lockdowns. On Saturday (13 March 2021) I got accosted by the police in Cap d’Ail (south of France) for the offense of taking my kids out in the sun without having a justificatif. I have long lost track of the ever shifting rules of conduct, but I didn’t feel like arguing.

The police were just doing their jobs, enforcing shitty rules that harass and antagonize people. For example, I would have been allowed to be where I was if it were a working day, but since it was Saturday, it was verboten. The objective of such rules is nothing to do with public health; they are intended to exasperate us all to the point where we yield to the indignity of vaccine passports when they are rolled out, just so we can live our lives and be left in peace.

Continue reading →
Standard