Eurasia, History, Liberty, Policy, Politics, Social development, Tyranny, War and peace

Is the age of permanent war finally over?

Recent events in the world have given me great hope that we might finally emerge from the century of permanent war. The Great Reset agenda seems to be losing steam and those in charge of implementing it are losing conviction (with the exception, perhaps, of the very top echelon in power). At the same time, the ranks of people who are opposed to it and are willing to take a stand, appear to be swelling.

Since the very start of the great pandemic of 2020, something about the public health response didn’t feel right. It was clear from the measures that were enacted and from measures that were not enacted that their purpose had little to do with public health. Instead, they seemed to further a different agenda. Soon we learned that this was all connected to World Economic Forum’s hugely ambitious Fourth Industrial Revolution or the Great Reset. But the agenda and the steps taken seemed rushed, panicked and frankly, hopeless.

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History, Liberty, Politics, War and peace

A plea for Russo-American Friendship: a grandmaster’s trek from Stalin to Putin

A few days ago I received a very welcome e-mail from a Russian chess grandmaster Lev Alburt (he has an excellent website for chess enthusiasts – www.chess-news.ru) . I instantly recognized Mr. Alburt’s name because I had quoted him in my book, “Grand Deception” and fully share his sentiment about the importance of preserving and cultivating a relationship of friendship and constructive cooperation between Russia and the United States. This question could be of decisive importance for the future of humanity and I would ask you to please read Mr. Alburt’s thoughtful words:

A plea for Russo-American friendship

One Grandmaster’s Trek From Stalin to Putin

By Lev Alburt

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Central banking, Liberty, Policy, Politics, Real life, Tyranny, War and peace

Why we all MUST reject vaccine passports

The enemy is fear. We think it is hate; but it is really fear. – Mohandas Gandhi

To ‘normalize’ vaccine passports, the media have increasingly been discussing the idea as we trudge on through the umpteenth version of lockdowns. On Saturday (13 March 2021) I got accosted by the police in Cap d’Ail (south of France) for the offense of taking my kids out in the sun without having a justificatif. I have long lost track of the ever shifting rules of conduct, but I didn’t feel like arguing.

The police were just doing their jobs, enforcing shitty rules that harass and antagonize people. For example, I would have been allowed to be where I was if it were a working day, but since it was Saturday, it was verboten. The objective of such rules is nothing to do with public health; they are intended to exasperate us all to the point where we yield to the indignity of vaccine passports when they are rolled out, just so we can live our lives and be left in peace.

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Central banking, Economics, History, Inflation, Policy, Politics

About that imminent banking crisis… don’t hold your breath. We get inflation instead.

A subtle understanding of economic change comes from a knowledge of history and large affairs, not from statistics or their processing alone…

Arthur Burns[1]

Those of us who spend time analysing financial markets have been anticipating an impending banking crisis for years now. A number of Global Systemically Important Banks (GSIBs) as well as many lesser banks have been struggling under an increasing burden of bad debts and deteriorating credit quality in their balance sheets. Deutsche Bank, probably the worst offender, has been on death watch since 2016. But as years went by and doubts about the bank’s solvency multiplied and compounded, no banking crisis materialized.

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Central banking, History, Media, Monetary reform, Policy, Politics, Social development, Truth, War and peace

Covid 19: the banking cartel is driving the agenda

For weeks now, the media and “health” authorities have relentlessly promoted a fear-inducing narrative about the Covid 19 “pandemic” as if the daily count of new “cases” were a major public health emergency, sensationalized by the media nearly 24/7. The official narrative is sharply at odds with the gathering voices from hundreds of doctors, virologists and epidemiologists.

Incoherence of the official narrative

Supposing that we are up against a “once-in-a-century” pandemic, this would be a great challenge for humanity, wrought with uncertainty. One would expect to encounter a lively debate, discussions, much doubt and controversy. Journalists should seek out as many domain experts as possible so we can all gain the clearest possible understanding of the new health challenge and how to confront it. Effective treatments should be promoted, celebrated, screamed from the rooftops. But the reality is very different. Continue reading

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Children, Health, Media, Policy, Politics, Social development

Of pandemics and tyrannies

A few years ago Dr. Jordan Peterson gave a lecture in which he made a chilling but noteworthy remark about the correlation between epidemics and tyrannies. I thought I’d transcribe the key parts (the video clip of this lecture is at the bottom of this article):

Jordan Peterson: “There was a paper published in PLOS 1 … about a year ago… They were looking at… political attitudes with … authoritarian beliefs scale, because authoritarianism has been studied quite a bit since World War II. … What they found was mind-boggling – Nobel Prize winning stuff as far as I’m concerned: Continue reading

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Eurasia, Policy, Politics, War and peace

CIA’s Mike Morell: the covert war in the Middle East is ongoing. It might escalate…

During the night on Sunday, 26 January, five Katyusha rockets were launched on the heavily fortified U.S. Embassy in Baghdad. Three of them allegedly made a direct hit with at least one striking the embassy dining hall. This event followed the massive demonstrations in Baghdad demanding the U.S. troops to leave Iraq. Indeed, the tensions in the Middle East are unlikely to dissipate any time soon… Hopefully however, they won’t lead to the “horrendous” and “devastating” world war that a bi-partisan panel commissioned by the U.S. Congress predicted might break out within four years. Continue reading

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Commodity price, Energy crisis, Hedging, Market trends, Oil market, Politics, Trading, Trend following, War and peace

The coming oil price shock 3: saber rattling in the persian gulf

Side note 1: as oil geopolitics tensions escalate I’ve decided to sequentially number my “coming oil price shock” articles. This is the 3rd one (the first one is here, and second one here.)
Side note 2: if oil price hedging is a headache, please view my presentation here (YouTube, 12 minutes).
  • Trump Administration put their credibility on the line by taking a hard line on Iranian oil exports, pledging to collapse them to zero.
  • Iranian officials matched the rhetoric by promising to close the Straits of Hormuz entirely to oil traffic. A third of world’s traded oil production transit through that choke-point.
  • Assurances of ramped-up oil production from Saudi Arabia and Opec appear as firm as a wet noodle.

 

U.S. taking a hard line on Iran oil exports

Over the Easter weekend we’ve seen an escalation of Trump Administration’s rhetoric toward Iran. On Monday, 22 April, State Secretary Pompeo issued an official statement pledging that after their expiry on May 2, the U.S. would not renew any of the waivers enabling Iran to export crude oil. Iran’s oil exports have already dwindled from 2.5 million barrels per day last April to around 1 million barrels, and the official U.S. policy is to bring Iranian oil exports to zero.

In taking the hard line against Iran, the Trump administration has put its credibility on  the line. Secretary Pompeo followed up the official announcement on twitter, stating that, “maximum pressure” means maximum pressure. Trump backed him up promising “full sanctions…”

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Commodity price, Commodity risk, Economics, Energy crisis, Hedging, Inflation, Market research, Market trends, Oil market, Politics, Risk management, Trading

The coming oil price shock: could the crisis in Venezuela trigger an energy crisis?

Measured by historical standards, the price of oil has been extremely volatile in recent years. From over $114 per barrel in the summer of 2014 it collapsed more than 75% in only 18 months’ time. Then it tripled to $86/bbl in October 2018, only to drop by 40% to $52/bbl two months later. The question is, why is the oil price so very volatile? Is the market foreshadowing greater disruptions in the future? A closer look into oil supply and demand fundamentals suggests that a great crisis could be in the making – possibly with alarming repercussions.

The looming oil shortage

In 2012 a report produced by the UK Ministry of Defence predicted that oil prices would rise significantly out to 2040, and by “significantly,” they meant to $500 per barrel. From today’s perspective, this may seem farfetched. However, we should not dismiss UKMOD’s warning lightly. This could turn out to be the most important development facing humanity for decades to come. Continue reading

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