Category Archives: Politics

Policy, Politics, War and peace

Courting Armageddon vs. cultivating peace

A spat at the UN Security Council shows the contrast between two very different approaches to war and to peace

[Originally published on Alex Krainer’s Substack] On 26 October 2023 at the United Nations Security Council an interesting exchange between the representatives of Israel and China followed China’s vetoing of the latest US-sponsored UNSC Israel/Palestine resolution. Israel’s permanent representative to the UN, Gilad Erdan delivered an abrasive, undiplomatic reprimand: 

“To those who voted against this resolution I must say that your decision shocks me to my core. In Israel, we are fighting for our very survival. My elderly parents living in Ashkelon have spent the last 20 days running back and forth to their bomb shelters as rockets rained down on them, deliberately on them, on civilians. And you cannot condemn even these deliberate attacks on civilians perpetrated by terror organizations? If any of your countries endured a similar massacre, I am certain – certain, that you would act with much greater force than Israel. Much greater force!

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There would be no question in your minds that such a barbaric slaughter requires a broad military operation against the terrorists who committed such inhumane atrocities to eradicate their terrorist capabilities in order to make sure that such atrocities can even happen again. How would Moscow react if terrorist death squads wiped out entire neighborhoods in Moscow? How would Beijing respond if a genocidal jihadis beheaded and murdered your babies? I will give you a moment to reflect on that thought. But I believe every person, not only here in this room, across the globe, whoever is watching this discussion, knows exactly how you would respond.”

China’s permanent representative Zhang Jun‘s response was very measured and diplomatic, but I will skip it here. You can see the whole exchange in the 4-min. YouTube clip below:

What I found more interesting was that if Mr. Erdan’s remarks were intended to justify Israel’s actions by suggesting that others would react with “much greater force,” they certainly missed their mark. 

How Russia responded to Ukraine’s “anti-terror operation” in 2014

We can contrast Israel’s rash and impulsive response to Hamas attacks to the way Russia responded to Ukraine’s 2014 “anti-terrorist operation” (ATO) against the Russian-speaking population in the south and in Donbass. Starting in late April that year, Ukraine’s regular troops, seeded with extremist elements from the Right Sector and other far-right paramilitary organizations descended with tanks, armored personnel carriers, heavy artillery, helicopters and aircraft on the Donbass and the cities of Slavyansk, Mariupol, Krasnoarmeisk, Kramatorsk, Donetsk, Lugansk and many smaller towns and villages. 

By saying that Ukraine’s troops were “seeded with extremists,” I mean that when the initial attempts at repression turned out ineffective because Ukraine’s regular troops weren’t keen on unleashing violence on their fellow citizens, the Kiev junta hastily dispatched two or three members of different neo-Nazi gangs to all the mobilized units to enforce the junta’s orders, steel the troops’ resolve, and stir the pot properly to provoke a reaction from Russia.

Kiev’s first “success” was a massacre of Russian speaking protesters in Odessa on 2 May 2014. In addition to the 46 people who were burnt alive in the Trade Unions building that day, another 90 men, women and children were killed. The mass casualty event was planned and orchestrated deliberately. The unofficial casualty count was as high as 200 people. But that was only the beginning: over the ensuing weeks, Kiev’s troops killed more than 2000 Russian speaking Ukrainians (as officially tallied up in mid-July 2014 by Kiev’s government). 

Giving peace every chance

Contrary to what Mr. Erdan suggested, Russia’s leadership did not react with “far greater force.” No Kremlin representative called Ukrainians “human animals” nor flattened any part of Kiev in anger. Instead, Vladimir Putin’s government called for peace. They maintained open lines of communications with Kiev and called for discussions with representatives of western powers. At Russia’s initiative, peace negotiations ensued with Geneva Accords, followed by Minsk I and Minsk II agreements. Russia’s government continued to work the diplomatic tack for 8 long years even as Kiev troops continued with daily shelling of towns and cities in the Donbass, killing a total of 14,000 people.

Before resorting to military means, the Kremlin proposed draft security agreements to the United States and NATO in December 2021. Even after the start of their “Special Military Operation” (SMO) in February 2022, the Russians continued to negotiate with Zelensky’s government in Kiev. Those negotiations very nearly yielded an agreement only a month into the military operation, but for the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson‘s intervention to make sure that peace didn’t break out in Ukraine. 

Selective brutality, no reactions in anger

And while western media have been uniformly hostile to Russia, condemning its operations in Ukraine as barbaric and brutal, Russian brutality has been selective and strictly limited. Russia also did not react in anger against Israel when it caused the downing of its military aircraft over Syria killing 15 Russian officers. It also did not retaliate when Turkish air force downed its aircraft, nor when Azerbaijani forces did the same only hours before the 2020 signing of a peace deal between Azerbaijan and Armenia brokered by Russian diplomats. The peace deal was still signed in spite of someone’s attempt to derail it.

Russia also kept its cool when a passenger jet carrying 224 Russian tourists was shot down over Sinai desert in 2015 and when 9 of its diplomats were assassinated (or died suddenly and unexpectedly) around the world in quick succession, including its Ambassador in Ankara and its UN Ambassador Vitaly Churkin. For the record, these unexpected deaths occurred before the pandemic.

Statesmen with nuclear weapons shouldn’t indulge in juvenile tantrums

In all, Mr. Erdan’s remarks at the UNSC yesterday reflect an emotionally charged moment and perhaps justifiable outrage. But at high levels in diplomacy and government, officials have a responsibility to guard against rash, reckless reactions that jeopardize peace and risk escalating hostilities. It is understandable that many people at such times thirst for vengeance and disregard risks and consequences. But statesmen should not succumb to the emotion of the moment.

This should have double weight on Israeli leadership today, since their actions risk precipitating a regional war that could easily escalate to an uncontrollable global conflict with unpredictable consequences. Indulging an emotional, impulsive pursuit of revenge by a government whose arsenal includes as many as 400 nuclear bombs is reckless and irresponsible in the extreme. It is high time for Israeli leadership to sober up and finally seek a constructive path to peace and stability in its region.

Alex Krainer – @NakedHedgie is the creator of I-System Trend Following and publisher of daily TrendCompass investor reports which cover over 200 financial and commodities markets. One-month test drive is always free of charge, no jumping through hoops to cancel. To start your trial subscription, drop us an email at TrendCompass@ISystem-TF.com

For US investors, we propose a trend-driven inflation/recession resilient portfolio covering a basket of 30+ financial and commodities markets. For more information, you can drop me a comment or an email to xela.reniark@gmail.com

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History, Politics, Truth, War and peace

A history of conspiracies

In his address to the National Press Club yesterday (14 March), Sy Hersh shared a few important insights.

Yesterday evening, Seymour Hersh addressed the National Press Club in New York. The event was organized by the Committee for the Republic which kindly invited me to attend via Zoom. As expected, much of what Mr. Hersh covered was related to his latest story about the Nord Stream 2 attack including much minutia about the actual physical challenges in setting up the explosive charges to the pipelines. What Hersh laid out made the recent New York Times story about six pro-Ukrainian individuals with boxcutters a sailing yacht beyond ridiculous. The video, courtesy of the Committee for the Republic is below:

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History, Politics, War and peace

Escalation to World War III and the British establishment

UK’s leading establishment figures are gung-ho promoting World War III. What’s behind the agenda?

Last October I published an article titled “Britain’s secret diplomacy and European wars,” exploring the role of Britain in bringing about both of last century’s World Wars and contributing to the current escalation in Ukraine.

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Energy crisis, Great Reset, Policy, Politics, Social development, Tyranny

By hook and by crook: pushing the Great Reset

Last July, following a 3-hour call with with the German firebrand MEP Christine Anderson, I published the article, “A small short: the coming collapse of the air travel industry,” about the strange epidemic of travel chaos at airports around the western world. The contention from three industry insiders on that call was that the chaos was being deliberately orchestrated to destroy the air travel industry. They presented detailed and compelling evidence for their contention.

Of course, any such conspiracy theorizing tends to elicit raised eyebrows among the normies. Evidence or no evidence, they reject whatever can’t be linked to “credible sources” in legacy media (by contrast, they’ll accept the official narratives even on statements attributed to unnamed officials). The dismissal of any suggestion that there might be a planned agenda to destroy an entire industry usually leads with the question, “who would do such a thing?“

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Economics, Monetary reform, Policy, Politics, Real life, Social development

Policy: economic growth or quality of life?

Published on my Substack, 7 Dec. 2022.

It goes without saying that the key policy objective of fiscal and monetary authorities the world over is to achieve and sustain economic growth. This imperative is ultimately the by-product of the fraudulent monetary system we’ve had in place for several centuries now. In that time, the system has shaped and distorted economic and social policy, economic theory, cultural norms and even the way we think of ourselves.

But living under this system has been a relatively recent socioeconomic experiment. It has proven highly flawed, unsustainable and even pathogenic. At present, it is in an irreversible decline, and it is incumbent upon our generation to rethink and reimagine how to build the future, as even the Davos set claims we must. But we cannot hope to solve society’s problems unless we diagnose the problems correctly.

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Eurasia, Monetary reform, Politics, Social development

A report from the Eurasian Integrations conference

At the end of October I travelled to Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan located on the western shore of the Caspian Sea. I went there to speak at the XV Verona Eurasian Economic Forum held on the 27 and 28 October 2022. I found a few things about this experience quite remarkable. For one thing, Azerbaijan was never on my bucket list of places to visit, so I was very pleasantly surprised with what I saw there – so much so that I put together an impromptu video postcard you’ll find below in this post.

The conference itself was superb, both in terms of the program and in terms of the caliber of its participants, among them the former Italian Prime Minister Romano Prodi, Russia’s Integrations and Macroeconomics Minister Sergey Glazyev and many high-level executives from central banks, commercial banks, industry, research institutions and media. Participants came from Russia, France, Germany, India, China, United States, Turkey, Azerbaijan as well as many other Eurasian nations. As far as I know, I was the only participant from Croatia.

The content of the conference focused on the area’s economic development, banking and finance, evolution of the currency and payment systems, cryptocurrencies and crowdfunding; about infrastructure and social development, food production, and a very intelligent discussion about the role of technology in society. Quality of the deliberations was actually quite impressive. This wasn’t about possibilities of development in some distant future, but discussions about real solutions: elements of a new and improved operating system for society that are actually being developed and implemented even as you read these lines.

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Politics, War and peace

It’s done: realities of the hyper-transparent spy world

On Monday, 26 September 2022 someone blew up the Nord Stream pipeline system, built at Germany’s request, to deliver Natural Gas from Russia to Germany. For a number of reasons, some of which I articulated in the article, “Britain’s Secret Diplomacy and the European Wars,” I thought that Great Britain was probably the mastermind and one of the perpetrators behind the attacks. Again, not any legitimate British government organization, but some deep state networks within the British military and structures. I expressed this view in the podcast with Tom Luongo, published five days after the attacks.

This week, Russia’s Foreign Ministry and the Ministry of Defence revealed that Britain’s (then) PM Liz Truss sent a message to the US State Secretary Antony Blinken, saying “It’s done.”

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Central banking, Eurasia, Great Reset, Monetary reform, Politics, Social development, War and peace

The real war: People vs. the Banks

Recessions, debt, energy crisis, inflation and wars… somehow it is all related, and it is related at a global level, impacting nearly all economies and markets. It all seems to be going rather badly for the “rules based global order,” or as some prefer to call it, “the empire of lies.”

Shock, after shock, after shock…

Last week, on Oct. 6, Kristalina Georgieva, IMF’s Managing Director gave a speech at the Georgetown University in Washington where she explained that the global economy, which was expected to recover strongly after the Covid 19 pandemic, experienced a “shock, after shock, after shock” instead, that it is now experiencing a “fundamental shift,” and that this shift could create a “dangerous new normal.” Georgieva thinks this can only be mitigated by “countries working together.”

We’re winning in Ukraine! Or maybe we’re not.

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Energy crisis, Eurasia, Inflation, Policy, Politics

Will Germany sink the EU?

Beseiged from all sides, Germany can now look to one reliable partner: Russia.

Europe’s escalating economic, financial and geopolitical crises are putting increasing pressure on the whole EU project. They’re also unmasking the exalted “European unity” for the utter farce that it is. It’s become clear that like most other things in the empire of lies, that unity is exactly its opposite as allies turn against allies.

Destroying Germany’s economic lifeline

Someone blew up Nord Stream pipelines bringing in cheap, abundant natural gas from Russia to Germany. German economy depended on this resource for nearly 60% of its industrial production. As Zoltan Pozsar suggested, $2 trillion of German value depended on $20 billion of Russian gas.

We can’t be sure who blew up the pipelines,but the most likely suspects are all Germany’s supposed friends and allies: the US, UK, Poland, Sweden and Denmark. Of course, we are not talking about those nations’ legitimate government structures, but rather, the deep state elements within. One thing that is not in doubt however, is that Germany, not Russia, will sustain by far the greatest damage from the sabotage. That was fully well appreciated by all protagonists of this drama, implying that it was a deliberate and premeditated attack on Germany.

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Eurasia, History, Politics, War and peace

Britain’s secret diplomacy and the European wars

On Monday this week, Polish Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau signed a diplomatic note and delivered it to the German Federal Foreign Office, formally demanding $1.3 trillion in war reparations for damages suffered by Poland during WW2. The sum – indubitably calculated by experts – represents a cool $15,500 per man, woman and child living in Germany today and over $34,000 per man, woman, and child living in Poland.

What’s going on? If you ever read E. D. Morel’s 1912 book, “Ten Years of Secret Diplomacy,” or more recent titles like Carroll Quigley‘s “Tragedy and Hope,” “The Secret Origins of the First World War” by Gerry Docherty and Jim Macgregor, or “Conjuring Hitler” by Guido Giacomo Preparata (in fact, many such titles have emerged over the last two decades), you may be familiar with the shockingly perfidious scheming of British secret diplomacy, perpetrated by a covert cabal within the ruling establishment. That secret diplomacy – kept secret primarily from the British people – has led to the last two world wars on the European continent. This was done deliberately and with premeditated intention to bring about both great wars.

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