Asset management, Behavioral finance, Commodity price, Commodity risk, Expertise, Hedging, Market research, Market trends, Risk management, Stock market, Trading, Trend following

Do trend followers move markets? (they do).

A few months ago, when reviewing our trades on US Treasury futures, I was so delighted, I drafted a bragging article titled “How we knew yields would collapse?” summarizing the results of our trading. That performance was entirely generated by my I-System model, first built in 1999. I still find myself awestruck that this works… We generated profitable trades through both the bear and the bull market in bonds, literally without needing to know a single thing about the market fundamentals. The trades were strictly based on the knowledge framework built into the system more than 20 years ago (by the way, our strategies are still generating excellent signals in those same markets). Continue reading

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Commodity price, Hedging, Market research, Market trends

Do markets move in trends?

Do markets move in trends – I find it baffling and fascinating that this question is still even debated, but there are individuals – usually in the academia – who, in all seriousness, will maintain that price fluctuations are random, and that we essentially hallucinate trends. I’ve tackled the issue in some detail in my book Mastering Uncertainty in Commodities Trading, but perhaps a few charts could help settle the issue: Continue reading

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