Author Archives: Alex Krainer

Central banking, History, Media, Monetary reform, Policy, Politics, Social development, Truth, War and peace

Covid 19: the banking cartel is driving the agenda

For weeks now, the media and “health” authorities have relentlessly promoted a fear-inducing narrative about the Covid 19 “pandemic” as if the daily count of new “cases” were a major public health emergency, sensationalized by the media nearly 24/7. The official narrative is sharply at odds with the gathering voices from hundreds of doctors, virologists and epidemiologists.

Incoherence of the official narrative

Supposing that we are up against a “once-in-a-century” pandemic, this would be a great challenge for humanity, wrought with uncertainty. One would expect to encounter a lively debate, discussions, much doubt and controversy. Journalists should seek out as many domain experts as possible so we can all gain the clearest possible understanding of the new health challenge and how to confront it. Effective treatments should be promoted, celebrated, screamed from the rooftops. But the reality is very different. Continue reading →

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Children, Health, Media, Policy, Politics, Social development

Of pandemics and tyrannies

A few years ago Dr. Jordan Peterson gave a lecture in which he made a chilling but noteworthy remark about the correlation between epidemics and tyrannies. I thought I’d transcribe the key parts (the video clip of this lecture is at the bottom of this article):

Jordan Peterson: “There was a paper published in PLOS 1 … about a year ago… They were looking at… political attitudes with … authoritarian beliefs scale, because authoritarianism has been studied quite a bit since World War II. … What they found was mind-boggling – Nobel Prize winning stuff as far as I’m concerned: Continue reading →

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Asset management, Central banking, Inflation, Market trends, Stock market, Trend following

Bear market or bubble reflation: what comes next?

In March last year, I published an article looking at historical perspective on boom/bust cycles in SeekingAlpha. I suggested then that, “the (still) festering economic imbalances might get resolved along two alternative scenarios. Either we’ll have a full-blown deflationary depression that could see asset prices drop by 50% or more, or we’ll have a strong and sustained decline in the US Dollar, ” accompanied with a continued rise in equity markets. Today, the latter scenario appears more likely. Here’s why: Continue reading →

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Health, Policy, Truth

Reject fear: your immune system is robust and resilient – your best bet for good health and vitality

Three weeks ago I published, “Don’t succumb to virus fear,” – one of my best read articles so far. As a layman, I hesitated to publish more than just 6 paragraphs based on official data with only very simple, non-controversial advice on how to bolster your immune system.

In the intervening days, many experts have come out offering essentially the same advice. Today I came across the superb interview with Dr. Shiva Ayyadurai, MIT immunologist with four PhDs whose message is authoritative and completely in agreement with my timid prose from a few weeks ago. Continue reading →

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Asset management, Commodity price, Commodity risk, Stock market, Trading, Trend following

With I-System through March storm – part 2

March 2020 market storm has been an important test of the I-System model and the way it navigated the unforeseen events. The results have been very encouraging and the system has done well in all affected markets. Last week I summarized its performance on Brent crude oil, Silver and US 30-year Bond. Here we take a look at how it performed in Russell 2000, S&P500 and Palladium markets. Continue reading →

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Asset management, Commodity price, Commodity risk, Hedging, Market trends, Oil market, Risk management, Trading, Trend following

With I-System through the storm… with flying colors!

Recent weeks brought severe price shocks in many markets. Their timing and severity took most participants by surprise. In these circumstances, I-System strategies performed superbly well. As this post shows, a few strategies sustained negative results, but this is to be expected. This is why, rather than formulating a trading strategy, we built a stable knowledge framework so that we can formulate and implement literally thousands of strategies within that framework. In this sense I-System holds potential to entirely transcend uncertainty by supplanting it with a more predictable risk class: a swarm of consistent, intelligent and emotionless trading agents, each in charge of a small fraction of portfolio risk. The current experience was an important test for the I-System. The results speak for themselves. Continue reading →

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Children, Mystery, Psychology, Real life, Truth

Merica

This is a personal story, and it may seem a strange one to share given the difficult days we are living through. But I think it could not be more relevant. Here goes:

Years ago I read “The Hiram Key” by Christopher Knight and Robert Lomas. Not a memorable book, but one thing I vaguely remembered about it was the authors’ alternative explanation for where the name “America” came from. Over the last few weeks, a very remarkable experience unfolded in relation to this question… Continue reading →

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Health, Real life

Don’t succumb to virus fear

UPDATE: I have followed up on this post including an important interview with Dr. Shiva Ayyadurai, MIT epidemiologist whose authoritative perspective is important to consider: Reject Fear! Your immune system is robust and resilient…

 

Today I learned that schools in Monaco and all of France won’t open on Monday morning and will remain closed at least until early May 2020. This is the authorities’ emergency response to the Corona virus pandemic that engulfed much of the world.

Whether this response is appropriate or overkill, I cannot say but I think it is important that we not succumb to irrational fear of Corona virus – or any other disease. To put things into proper perspective, consider what we know about pathogens like the poliovirus, TB and malaria: Continue reading →

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Asset management, Commodity price, Commodity risk, Energy crisis, Hedging, Inflation, Market psychology, Market trends, Oil market, Trend following

Market panics and trend following

Today global capital markets opened to unprecedented price dislocations. ZeroHedge captured the mood: “Panic Purgatory: Oil Crashes to $27%; S&P Futures Locked limit Down, Treasuries Soar Limit Up Amid Historic Liquidation.” Over the recent months I’ve posted many articles on this blog and on SeekingAlpha, basically along two themes:

1) Warning that the markets would experience great turbulence in the near future (see here: “Perfect Storm Gathering…” and

2) Suggesting that the best way to navigate through the storm is by using high-quality systematic trend following strategies (see here, “Trend Following Might Save Your Tail“).

It may be that the time of reckoning has begun But if you followed my advice and used systematic trend following, most likely you’d be having a good day today. The chart below illustrates the net positioning of my 493 I-System strategies at market open this morning: Continue reading →

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