Recently, my 2016 book, “Mastering Uncertainty in Commodities Trading” received the honor of topping Financial-Expert.co.uk’s list of “The 5 best books on commodities for traders and investors.” I must say, it is gratifying to receive such recognition from people who actually read books.
On the occasion, I gave an interview to Financial Expert’s Simon Oates:
Interview with Alex Krainer
Please could you tell us a little about your professional background and why you felt inspired to write the book?
Alex: That’s a great question, actually. I started working in oil trading in 1996 as a market analyst. As a recent college graduate, I initially focused on the fundamental economics of the energy industry, but it did not take a very long time for the limitations of this approach to become apparent.
In the late 1990s, global economic growth was in full swing but capital favored investments in information technology, telecommunications and pharmaceuticals. Investment in oil exploration and refining tightened and in an environment of strongly rising demand and tightening supply, it seemed like a no-brainer that oil prices would have to readjust upward. This was pretty much the consensus view in the industry.
Well, it turned out to be very wrong: between 1997 and 1999 oil prices halved, from low $20s per barrel to $10! It became obvious that we needed to improve our approach with quantitative methods of market analysis and my thinking converged on trend following which has been the school of thought I subscribe to ever since.
But doing technical analysis of price charts and building trading algorithms is such an esoteric, strange way to make a living that at some point I thought I should try to articulate how and why I ended up doing what I do and to explain the ideas that have made this approach so compelling to me. I remember thinking to myself once, if my mum asked me what I do, how would I even explain it? So that’s how writing “Mastering Uncertainty” ended up on my ‘to do’ list.
For the full interview, please visit Financial-Expert.co.uk following this link: https://www.financial-expert.co.uk/author-interview-alex-krainer/
Alex Krainer – @NakedHedgie is the creator of I-System Trend Following, founder of Krainer Analytics and publisher of TrendCompass reports, based in Monaco. He worked as a market analyst, researcher, trader and hedge fund manager for over 25 years. He wrote “Mastering Uncertainty in Commodities Trading,” rated #1 book on FinancialExpert.co.uk list of “The 5 Best Commodities Books for Investors and Traders.” In March 2021 he published “Alex Krainer’s Trend Following Bible.” His book “Grand Deception: The Browder Hoax” was twice banned on Amazon by orders of swamp creatures from the U.S. Department of State. He is a contributing edotor at ZeroHedge and also writes at ISystem-TF.com. His views and opinions are not always for polite society but they are always expressed in sincere pursuit of true knowledge and clear understanding of ideas that matter.