Tag Archives: Trend following

Commodity price, Economics, Energy crisis, Hedging, Market psychology, Oil market, Uncategorized

4/5: Sources and quality of oil market information

This posting is part 4 in the 5-part series on the future energy crisis we are likely facing. Here are parts one, two, and three. My research to try and establish facts about oil supply and demand led to many dead-ends where you must take the information at face value and hope that it is true. For example, we’ve all heard (again) about tanker-fulls of unsold crude oil floating around the world, but ultimately, this information was based on hearsay. For example, Bloomberg reported how oil companies are seeking supertankers to store 20 million barrels of crude oil [i] (that sounds like a lot, but it represents only a few hours’ worth of global demand). Continue reading →

Advertisement
Standard
Commodity price, Hedging, Market research, Market trends

Do markets move in trends?

Do markets move in trends – I find it baffling and fascinating that this question is still even debated, but there are individuals – usually in the academia – who, in all seriousness, will maintain that price fluctuations are random, and that we essentially hallucinate trends. I’ve tackled the issue in some detail in my book Mastering Uncertainty in Commodities Trading, but perhaps a few charts could help settle the issue: Continue reading →

Standard