Complexity, Energy crisis, Policy, Psychology, Social development, Truth

Dear Leonardo, …about that 97% consensus…

Yesterday I saw a brief speech by Leonardo di Caprio imploring people to vote – not for the candidate who ignores science. He was talking about the scientific consensus on global warming and mentioned that 97% of all scientists agree that global warming climate change is a man-made phenomenon. This 97% consensus figure is so compelling, it is only fair to explore where it came from.

Where “97% consensus” comes from

One Margaret Zimmerman conducted an opinion survey in 2008. The “survey” consisted of a two-question online questionnaire sent to 10,257 “earth scientists” (?), of whom 3,146 responded. Continue reading →

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Central banking, Economics, Inflation, Market research, Monetary reform, Policy

We’re heading for stagflation!

Last week we learned that U.S. federal debt passed the $19.5 trillion, adding $1.36 trillion during this fiscal year. Just last month, it added $151.5 billion. By now we have all gone a bit tone-deaf with all the billions and trillions tossed about in the news, so let’s put this into a bit of perspective. In August, the U.S. government added $475 per man, woman and child, or $1,206 per household living in the U.S. We are talking one month’s time here! The annual clip is $5,700 per man woman and child!! This is very far from sustainable, but it’s quite a bit worse actually. Continue reading →

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Asset management, Behavioral finance, Commodity price, Commodity risk, Economics, Hedging, Market research, Market trends, Psychology, Risk management, Trend following

Harnessing market trends to manage commodity price risk

On 24th September 2015, David Stein (M Sc., CFA, President and CEO of Aberdeen International[1]) wrote a compelling article analyzing the expected effect of last year’s VolksWagen emissions scandal on palladium and platinum markets that should be of great interest to commodity traders and industry. Continue reading →

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Asset management, Commodity price, Economics, Hedging, Trend following, Uncategorized

“Mastering Uncertainty” receives its first review

I’ve recently published my book, “Mastering Uncertainty in Commodities Trading” which has now obtained its first reader review on Amazon, and it’s a five stars review! For a first-time author, this is Christmas! Heartfelt thanks to Roman for taking time to read the book, “get it,” and post this flattering review. I’m posting the full text, titled “Exceptionally well written book,” below: Continue reading →

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Asset management, Central banking, Economics, Market research, Policy, Politics, Stock market, Uncategorized

Investing in the age of unprecedented monetary experiments

Since the 2008 financial crisis, world’s largest central banks have unleashed a program of monetary stimulus that dwarfs anything we’ve experienced in history. With no historical precedents, how should investors navigate the risks and events that will likely exert extreme stress upon political, economic and social fabric of nations across the world. Altana Wealth’s founder Lee Robinon offers some unorthodox insights in a 45 minute interview with Real Vision TV with Grant Williams. You may not hear similar thinking from academics or CNBC-vetted pundits. Lee has the remarkable capacity to keep a mind-bogglingly detailed mental map of what’s going on in the world of business, finance and politics within a clear historical perspective and isn’t shy about laying it out as he sees it. The video is below: Continue reading →

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Asset management, Market research, Market trends, Stock market, Trend following, Value investing

Value investing vs. trend following: which is better?

In spite of the undeniably impressive track record of many trend following funds, most investors are more at home with the idea of value investing. Value investing is intuitively appealing: we all like the idea of buying something when it’s inexpensive and selling it when overvalued. To boot, value investing counts Warren Buffett and Benjamin Graham as its proponents, arguably two among the most successful investment managers ever. However, a more careful analysis of Graham’s as well as Buffett’s writings and investments turns up a big surprise… Delving into this subject, below is an excerpt from my recently published book, “Mastering Uncertainty in Commodities Trading” Continue reading →

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Policy, Politics, Psychology, Social development

Brexit and the wisdom of crowds

In the aftermath of last week’s Brexit referendum many denounced the English vote with a mix of derision and indignation: the old and the uneducated crowds destroyed the European dream for everyone else. But would democracy be better if it were restricted to the best educated segment of the population? Let’s consider the idea of “wisdom of crowds.” This mysterious and utterly fascinating concept suggests that humanity evolved to be collectively intelligent and that the crowds tend to be more intelligent than the most intelligent of its members. If you have not yet come across this, prepare to be amazed (and keep an open mind): Continue reading →

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Eurasia, Social development

NATO innovates to further escalate tensions with Russia

In an interview with Germany’s always fairly balanced Bild, NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg said that NATO can and must react to cyber-attacks, including with conventional military weapons, and that the 28 NATO member states will likely declare the cyberspace as an operational war zone. This makes total sense and all that’s missing from the interview is the reassurance that we’ve always been at war with Eurasia. I could not resist a repost here of my April 2014 article titled,

We must urgently rearm to defeat the New New Hitler from the East!!!

Continue reading →

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