In 2012 a report produced by the UK Ministry of Defence predicted that oil prices would rise significantly out to 2040, and by “significantly,” they meant to $500 per barrel. Today, after nearly two years of low oil prices and much talk about an oil glut this may seem farfetched. But we shouldn’t dismiss UKMOD’s warning. This could turn out to be the most important development facing humanity for decades to come. Continue reading
Category Archives: Hedging
Do markets move in trends?
Do markets move in trends – I find it baffling and fascinating that this question is still even debated, but there are individuals – usually in the academia – who, in all seriousness, will maintain that price fluctuations are random, and that we essentially hallucinate trends. I’ve tackled the issue in some detail in my book Mastering Uncertainty in Commodities Trading, but perhaps a few charts could help settle the issue: Continue reading
The Naked Hedgie 